Tonight
GO
Kp 2.67 line 21 mi south · 11% cloud
Kp 2.67 · 21 mi south
Kp 2.67 drives this window
best window 20:22–23:22 — Kp 2.67 bin, 11% cloud, moon 94%, rises 20:43
dark 20:22–05:59 · moon 94%, rises 20:43
Should I drive?
| Location | Now | Tonight | Best-window clouds | Drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home homegeomag 50.6° |
NO
396 mi north
65 mi south
HP-gated: horizon claims suppressed
|
GO
Kp 2.67 · 21 mi south
|
11% | — |
| McClellan Viewpointgeomag 51.0° |
NO
372 mi north
89 mi south
HP-gated: horizon claims suppressed
|
GO
Kp 2.67 · 58 mi south
|
10% | 90 min |
| Windy Ridge Viewpointgeomag 51.2° |
NO
358 mi north
103 mi south
HP-gated: horizon claims suppressed
|
GO
Kp 2.67 · 73 mi south
|
8% | 180 min |
View lines
conservative (110 km) storm (300 km)
Why Home can see it right now
Right now (instantaneous conditions — sun is up)
Kp now
0.67
Hemispheric power
36 GW
Bz (nT) red = southward = go
—
Speed (km/s)
—
Density (p/cm³)
—
Tonight & tomorrow night — Home
Tomorrow night
NO
Kp 1.67 line 119 mi north · 43% cloud
Kp 1.67 · 119 mi north
Kp 1.67 drives this window
best window 20:20–21:20 — Kp 1.33 bin, 43% cloud, moon 88%, rises 21:03
dark 20:20–06:00 · moon 88%, rises 21:03
3-day Kp forecast
| UT | Aug 30 | Aug 31 | Sep 01 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00–03 UT | 3.67 | 3 | 1.67 |
| 03–06 UT | 3.67 | 2.67 | 1.33 |
| 06–09 UT | 3.33 | 2 | 1.67 |
| 09–12 UT | 3.67 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 12–15 UT | 2 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| 15–18 UT | 2 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 18–21 UT | 2.67 | 1 | 1.33 |
| 21–24 UT | 3.67 | 2 | 1.67 |
Claude's read
Previous statement — this build did not trigger a new analysis.
Not a storm — a modest, decaying high-speed-stream disturbance (Kp ~3–3.7) that only marginally reaches this region's camera-visibility threshold.
Telemetry shows a classic coronal-hole/CIR signature (wind speed climbing ~270→390 km/s, a density pulse, and hours of southward Bz to -14/-18 nT on Aug 8) that pushed Kp to ~3.0-3.67, but Bz has since swung back north (+5 to +7 nT) and hemispheric power (35 GW) sits below the tool's own 45 GW storm-confidence gate. Live OVATION is explicitly flagged 'quiet_oval' with no real storm/conservative viewline, so tonight's GO badges rest on a statistical Kp-rule extrapolation rather than a confirmed nowcast line. External data (Univ. Alaska GI aurora forecast, sourced from NOAA's outlook) lists Kp≈2 for both Aug 8 and Aug 9 with no NOAA G1+ storm watch found in searches, corroborating that this is unsettled/active — not storm — geomagnetic activity. Kp 3-3.7 essentially never produces naked-eye aurora at ~45.7°N geographic (~50.6°N geomagnetic); at best it can yield a faint camera-only glow low on the northern horizon during the Kp-peak hours, so the dashboard's GO calls are optimistic given the underlying data.
maybe confidence: medium storm not confirmed best: Homewindow (LLM commentary): Commentary only, does not override the tool's computed window: the modeled best window remains tonight ~21:02–02:02 PDT (Aug 8–9) at Home, coinciding with the Kp 3.33–3.67 peak, low moon (24%, rises 01:52) and modest cloud (~14–35%); realistically expect at most a faint, camera-only glow near the northern horizon rather than a confirmed naked-eye display, and only if Bz turns southward again.